Against all odds the 2007-2008 season will yield a surplus in cereals, according to the latest government forecast. The explanation is, at least in part, that farmers have abandoned cotton for cereals.

The discontinuation and the reduction of cotton farming has benefited cereal production. In spite of the flooding that has occurred here and there, the lower yields and the abrupt cessation of rainfall, harvests are likely to generate a surplus in cereals. Production has gone up from 3 680 million tonnes 2006 to 3 736 tonnes this year, whilst the output needed for the country as a whole is an estimated  2 875 million tonnes.

This result puts Burkina Faso at second from the top of  cereal producing countries in the CILSS (Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel) area, after Niger.

Of Burkina’s 45 counties, 20 have now at least a 120% coverage of cereal needs, 10 have a balance and 15 will have a shortage.

Paradoxically, the areas which were traditionally short of cereals, have now recorded good production results. Thus the Yatenga, Séno, Lorum, Soum, Oudalan and Namentenga counties have achieved the highest rate of coverage of cereal needs, varying between 138 to 201%, thanks to exceptionally heavy rainfall.

As a contrast, some other counties such as Houet and Poni have had an overall deficit in rains, after experiencing both floods and pockets of drought. Their cereal production has suffered a blow. For instance, on September 30th this year the observation centres at Bobo Dioulasso and Gaoua  recorded 897.1 mm and 810.1 mm,  which is lower than the 960.3 and 1043.8 mm in 2006. At the same date readings in Ouahigouya and Dori stood at 969.9 and 531.5 mm, compared to 626.5 and 367.8 mm last year.

The announcement of a surplus in this year’s output comes  as a virtual surprise

For some months now rumours of imminent famine have been circulating. According to Salif Diallo stocks have been with-held from the market for speculation purposes, in particular in Koudougou, Ouahigoya, Djibo, Dédougou and Banfora. As a result, in spite of the good harvest, the price of cereal has gone up. Some countries, with the year 2005 in bitter memory, are very reluctant to offer their newly harvested cereal on the market. The authorities say that they are well aware of this situation and that they intend to take action against the speculation, in order to keep cereal prices at an acceptable level. Therefore the national watch-dog scheme will be upheld through the various agencies for management of food shortages and there will be reinforcement of cultivation on irrigated land during the off-season. Roads and tracks that have been destroyed by the floods will be restored, to facilitate trade between surplus and shortage areas. But there is still some concern as to inter-state trade. The demand for cereal from neighbouring countries, such as Nigeria and Ghana, might have repercussions on Burkina Faso. Therefore the CILSS is  planning accompanying measures.

The Executive Secretary of CILSS, Professor Alhousseini Bretaudeau,  therefore feels confident in stating:

"The season’s harvest is satisfactory throughout the CILSS area”.

In his opinion the data presented in the report have a 95% rate of accuracy.

Fatouma Sophie OUATTARA

SIDWAYA

(daily paper, Burkina Faso)

9th November 2007