The Forum for Seasonal Forecasts for West Africa (PRESAO – Forum de prévision saisonnière de l’Afrique de l’Ouest) held its annual meeting as usual in Niamey on the 22 and 23 of May. This event is attended by meteorologists from West Africa (notably the AGRHYMET of Niamey), Cameroon and Tchad, as well as by international experts on weather forecasts.  On this occasion the forecasts for the rainy season, which is about to start, were presented.

For the Sahel, experts foresee less abundant rainfall in 2009 than in 2008.

The numbers given for each zone in the 3 different  quadrants indicate the probability that the aggregate seasonal rainfall will be either “above normal” (upper case),  “nearly normal” (middle case) or “below normal” (lower case).  Thus for Zone II which covers the major part of  the Niger, there is a 25% probability rate that the total rainfall for the season will be in the category “above normal” (whilst the rate for 2008 was 50%), 40% probability that the total will be “nearly normal” and a 35% chance that it will be “below normal”.

Therefore, as regards Zone II to which Burkina  Faso belongs, the probability is rated a “close to normal” amount of rain, with a possible trend towards “below normal” (as compared to the “excess  or normal” rain quantity of 2008).

These are only forecasts but they appear to indicate that rain levels in 2009 will not be as good as 2008. 

Prospects seem less promising for 2009  compared with last year. However, there is nevertheless 2 chances to 3 that Burkina will have “close to normal” or “above normal” rainfall during the forthcoming season. But all farmers know that what really matters is not the quantity, but the distribution of rain. And here experts can say nothing.  What conclusion is to be drawn? Prudence, as all good Sahelian farmers know.

Hence the regional centre, AGRHYMET, recommends producers to use water saving techniques,  capture trickling water, perform superficial surface grating at the beginning of the season,  apply of organic manure, plant in zaï, half moons etc. and to eliminate  weeds to reduce the competition for water.

This is a good opportunity for us to remind you of the existence of documents that will provide good advice., in particular the CESAO (Centre for Economic and Social Studies in West Africa) manuals n° 1 and 4 (“There is a shortage of water for our crops – what is to be done?”  and  “How to preserve good soil”). The edition in Easy French is unfortunately exhausted (but a reprint is possible).

However, the manuals are still available, in  moore :

• Sa-Koomã, paoogda d koodã : d nan maana a wana?
• Tẽngã sẽn na n zã tooto t’a pa n noome

And in  dioula :

• Sanji dεsεnin be an ka sεnεfεnw na. An ka mun le Kε ?
• An bena se ka dugukolo mara ka תa cogo di ?

These documents, written by Marin Terrible, P.B. (one of the pioneers of ecology and climate change sciences in Burkina) and Jean Ouattara, remain up to date. Any  farmer literate in one of these languages can read them.  Most of all these are outstanding teaching manuals for short training sessions and therefore also for Technical and Specialised Training Courses (Formations techniques et specialisées-   FTS) at literacy courses in officially recognised local languages in Burkina. Unfortunately I am not certain that the literacy  centres have actually used these manuals (available in Koudougou and from SEDELAN ).

Koudougou, May 28th 2009

Maurice Oudet

Director, SEDELAN